tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3448927642739850334.post1511102915178576770..comments2023-10-29T08:06:00.610+00:00Comments on The Political Economist: Tracking the recovery (3) - USAVuk Vukovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01878567452492217960noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3448927642739850334.post-66857386856103870742013-03-29T11:52:32.183+00:002013-03-29T11:52:32.183+00:00The housing permits indicator only looks at privat...The housing permits indicator only looks at private housing, so it excludes the possible bias of green lobbying for example, which is a good observation btw. Also, it measures total units of permits issued, and doesn't imply an increase in prices (the prices are increasing, but are not shown in that indicator).<br /><br />As for the long term outlook I agree, an immigration reform would be a good impulse. I was meaning to write something about that in the coming weeks. Vuk Vukovichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01878567452492217960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3448927642739850334.post-67531673615825619912013-03-29T10:51:51.034+00:002013-03-29T10:51:51.034+00:00Does the "housing" indicator take only p...Does the "housing" indicator take only private houses or all the housing investment (not done by the public sector)? I was watching an interview on bloomberg few days back. The guest was showing how the real recovery is in multifamily houses and the rentals.<br /><br /> Also permits can be tricky sometimes since in some states "green" lobbying and other laws seriously affect the supply, and "they" dont really care which part of the cycle. Maybe the rebound in prices wouldn't be a bad indicator, especially since homeownership is still in pretty low point. (Don't take much of consideration in this, Im just "thinking out loud")<br /><br />Other than that, Im more optimistic than Kyle about US going forward in 2013. I saw interview with a DB analyst on US and they seem pretty optimistic as well, maybe too much though, Im still not convinced Bernanke insulated US from the close-to-SHTF moments in Europe. He might still get some help from BoJ. The long term growth prospects are worrisome. I think the immigration reform, if done well could be a good impulse.<br /><br />GreetsAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02665089266421768740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3448927642739850334.post-7366610743867224692013-03-28T21:14:41.212+00:002013-03-28T21:14:41.212+00:00I have seen nothing to contradict my original pred...I have seen nothing to contradict my original prediction, which is that we would have modest recovery for the first part of 2013. Followed by a recessionary dip in the last part of the year.<br /><br />I base this on Fed policy which has no remaining tool except to rack up endless debt. And upon the realization by the end of the year that no one will be able to afford the Affordable Health Care (Obamacare)Act. KyleNhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15766641765942339253noreply@blogger.com