Wednesday, 15 June 2016

The Bayesian Adjusted Facebook Survey has started!

Today we have started with our Brexit survey. I invite all of my UK readers to give it a go. You will be helping us test our new BAFS prediction method. In other words you will be helping us make a better prediction for the upcoming UK EU referendum. As you may or may not know, the polls are showing the country is split. At this point, a week before the referendum the uncertainty regarding the potential outcome is sky-high. With our survey, which will be running until the final day before the referendum, we hope to reduce some of this uncertainty by utilizing our unique BAFS prediction method and forecasting the exact percentage each of the two options will get. 

The trick with our survey, as opposed to all others, is that we make our prediction by asking the people not only who they will vote for, but who they think will win, and how they think others will estimate who will win. For further clarification, read more here.

This basically means that we are not worried about the non-representatives of our sample, nor of the self-selection problem the survey is facing. Neither of these will bias the prediction. We hope to have our first results within a day or two, and will keep updating them every day until the day before the referendum. 

Also, after you vote, you can see how your friends voted (on aggregate, not individually), and how popular/influential you are within your network - but only if you share the survey directly through the app. So don't forget to share, either on Facebook or Twitter. Here's the link to the survey itself




No comments:

Post a Comment