Showing posts from December, 2016

2016: a bad year for predictions

Talk about Black Swans , 2016 was full of them! From elections to markets, from hacking to terrorist attacks, it was one unexpected event after another. Each a complete shocker in its own way. Especially in sports and politics.  Portugal winning the Euro  football tournament, Leicester winning the Premier League , Britain coming in second at the Olympic game medal count , or the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series  were as big as Black Swans as Brexit or Trump.  It goes without saying that a year of Black Swans was a terrible year for forecasters. Even the biggest names of the 'industry' have stumbled and failed to predict the biggest disruptive events of the year: Brexit and Trump. Not my company . We got Trump spot on . Just to remind my readers, we called 47 states including the most important swing states like PA, FL, NC, and OH for Trump. Our unique prediction method , that was further perfected since Brexit, has hit bull's-eye! Our almost perfect prediction