|Source: The Economist Graphic Detail|
One obvious pattern on this graph is the overall decline of the pace of recovery, despite the growth rate increasing in the second quarter of 2013. Have in mind that the drivers of this higher growth rate were the rich countries, with the emerging markets experiencing a slowdown. The main "culprit" was the relative growth slowdown in China who alone used to contribute one third to global growth, while around 40% was coming from the rest of the emerging markets. Even the somewhat stronger recovery from the West isn't enough to push back global growth to the pre-crisis 4-5%, and substitute for the lost growth. With further emerging market decline being expected, global output is very likely to continue down this declining path, the same path the West is all too familiar with.