Nobel prize for causal inference: why it matters
This year's Nobel prize in economics was awarded to three brilliant economists, David Card, Joshua Angrist, and Guido Imbens for revolutionizing the way economists (and social scientists) do empirical research. Specifically, Card got it for his contributions to labor economics, and Angrist and Imbens got it for causal inference, but all three made breakthrough contributions of applying the scientific method to economics. In the field, we call it the "credibility revolution". I am very familiar with the work of all three as I've used their papers very often while learning about causal inference, teaching it, and citing it in my own empirical research. I also had the honor of receiving comments on one of my papers (the recently published Politics of Bailouts ) from Josh Angrist at a conference I co-organized. The way I wish to pay respects to the three of them is by explaining to you, my dear reader, why this Nobel prize in particular deconstructs that typical malevol...